In which I dabble in Thai politics...

Largely because my trip to Burma consisted of: 1. Step across the border. 2. Buy Chinese DVDs. 3. Step back into Thailand. Total time in Burma < 30 minutes. Not exactly the stuff of travel legend, so instead I'll launch into a rambling dissertation on Thailand's political travails.

You're all aware that Thailand's somewhat dodgy civilian government of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra was overthrown in an abrupt but bloodless coup last September, two disorienting days after I arrived here. The coup was greeted by a startling (to me) level of public acclaim from people who were remarkably eager to ditch their hard-won democratic gains. The military government swiftly appointed an ex-general as interim prime minister, and promised a overwhelming flood of evidence into Thaksin's alleged corruption - the presumed preponderance of which was the stated justification for the coup.

Fast-forward to year's end, 2006. The government has been glacially slow to lift martial law, partly reneging on its own promises to do so within 3 months after the coup. Though there have been no harsh crackdowns, normal political assembly and protest remains banned. The military government has provided not one whit of evidence of Thaksin's corruption - supposedly so endemic and irrefutable that it compelled a reluctant military to burn Thailand's democracy in order to save it. And then, as you've surely heard, a series of ten small bombs in garbage cans detonated in Bangkok during New Year's Eve celebrations, killing three. A couple more were set off a few days ago at Bangkok media outlets, apparently without injury.

Awash with the luxury of geographical and cultural distance from the bombings (Chiang Mai is 800km north of Bangkok), I rapidly assumed that southern Thailand's long-simmering Muslim insurgency had finally made the expected migration to the capital. All public speculation has dismissed this option, however, and everyone quickly focused on the idea that members of the police or military were responsible - for reasons unknown to me, but the locals know their politics better than I do, so I'll give them the nod. The coup leadership instantly began insinuating (though not explicitly, nor with any evidence) that some of ousted PM Thaksin's uniformed supporters planted the bombs in order to undermine the military's promise of law and order. Other rumours rapidly began to fly of an imminent coup within the coup - the junta's secondary commanders potentially ousting the higher-ups, not to restore Thaksin but to refocus the coup on its ostensible democratic ideals.

All the while, a ludicrous clampdown on free speech continues. The military government apparently considers Thaksin Shinawatra so infectiously corrupt that they won't allow his words on the Thai airwaves, lest his evil taint the populace. CNN International interviewed him last week, in a session I fortunately caught on satellite TV. No saint he, but he merely insisted that no evidence of his corruption has been produced (true), that the coup has not followed through on its promise to restore political liberties (true), and that the government is unfairly censoring him (ditto). The remarkably innocuous interview was banned on Thai cable TV, and all Thaksin segments were mysteriously replaced by muzak-accompanied still photos of Will Smith, Tom Cruise, and Britney Spears (Huh?!). Much of the press, including the noxious English-language Bangkok Post, has shown astonishing fealty to this denial of free speech. The Post, in particular, seems to contentedly defend every move by the coup leaders and daily denounces Thaksin as evil incarnate. I have no idea if the Thai-language media are so spineless.

The next month will be critical. The dictatorship has offered to allow Thaksin back into the country (he's in exile in London at the moment) provided he remains out of politics. Content not to dispute the obvious illegality of the junta's barring him from office absent any criminal charges, Thaksin seems instead to be biding his time to make sure they're not likely to throw him in jail the moment he steps off his jet in Bangkok. He'll be out the country for a while yet, but rumours of his return could set off a wave of Thaksin nostalgia if the coup leadership doesn't soon liberalize things around here. The attendant confrontations could turn ugly - I stand by my September prediction that men with guns don't willingly give up power.

More critical, the army has promised that in one month's time it will release the results of its inquests into corruption under the old government. The suprising legitimacy of the coup will rest heavily on the results - no corruption, no reason for the coup to be tolerated (except for their guns, naturally). I have no doubt that if it comes to that, they'll fabricate evidence, but I'm pretty sure many Thais are expecting the same sleight-of-hand and will be poring closely over the evidence. I have my doubts they'll come up with anything substantive.

So what then? I expect public discontent with the military to grow, and the military (ever convinced of their own selflessness) to begin feeling slightly pressured and isolated. Without more evidence, I can't put much stock in rumours of a coup within the coup, or of a counter-coup by Thaksin supporters. So I re-ask the same question I raised in September: will there be violence? Well, for starters, there already has - a little sooner than I had predicted, but I'm still claiming points for that one.

Will there be more? Seems likely. If the coup was behind the bombings, then their motive to carry out more attacks may increase - they'll want to appear the bulwark against chaos. If Thaksin's supporters were behind it, then it seems certain that they'll grow more agitated as the military's case against their golden boy falls through. There also remains the possibility of future crackdowns against the protests that are sure to spring up eventually.

So am I safe here in Chiang Mai? Certainly looks that way. Chiang Mai's in a very sleepy part of a very sleepy country (recent turmoil notwithstanding). It's quiet and peaceful up here, without a hint of political unrest. Thais are difficult to rattle - losing your cool means losing face here, so nobody does it... ever. They continue about their daily business, and so do I. There's no reason to expect a rapid disintegration in Bangkok, let alone here in the far North. Don't worry, I've got no martyr complex. If things start to go downhill, I'll leave (pending DFAIT's sage advice). For now, that isn't happening... but I'll keep reading the tea leaves.