Tuesday, October 10, 2006

In which I don't know what to think...

So did it work or not?

Reliable sources are saying that the explosion detonated in North Korea had a force of about half a kiloton - the explosive power of 500 tons of TNT, set off simultaneously. That's awfully small for a nuclear test, but much too large for an outright dud. And here's a peculiar fact: building ultra-low-yield nuclear bombs is actually technically much harder than crafting their larger siblings.

So if those yield estimates are right, that leaves two options. Either North Korea's nuclear weapons scientists are actually much, much better at their jobs than anybody suspected (not bloody likely), or North Korea blew up a thousand tons of conventional high explosive underground in an attempt to fakea nuclear test (entirely in keeping with the character of the textbook Stalinist regime). North Korea has been awfully insistent that no radiation was leaked - a coverup, perhaps? Either way, the detection (or not) of bomb-produced radioactive isotopes will be the key to understanding what went on.

C'mon, I wanna know. If this was a fake, then much of what I said yesterrday is moot. Except the part about Bush having driven the world off a cliff - tht part still stands.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hey P-Rush,

I am in Seattle Airport reading non-malarial. I think it is also possible it was a 2-3 KT bomb that was detonated very deep. NPR expert guy suggested that an ultra deep hole would have muffed the shock on the Richter Scale, especially on a smal (but still conventionally big) device.

thailandchani said...

I heard on the news this morning that it is unlikely the test actually took place. They are saying there was no radiation found at the test site and it would have leaked at least a bit. Of course, I'm getting this news from the USA. Caveat emptor.

Paul said...

I suspect you're right. Even the most carefully sealed nuclear test still allows trace amounts of radionuclides to diffuse into the air a few days after detonation. These are very, very easy to detect by plane or satellite... so if we don't see any within a few weeks, we'll know something's awfully fishy.